Positive foundation / backdrop
Strong job market
Historically low unemployment
Income growth rate growing
People investing and buying
Favorable access to credit
Low corporate tax structure
More globally competitive
Rising U.S. oil production
Larger safety net for country if politics interrupt oil imports from countries like Saudi Arabia
Increased revenues for domestic energy companies
Macroeconomic Market Report
Political & trade uncertainty
Uncertainty of trade deal with Mexico, & Canada. USMCA deal signed on the last day of the month, Nov. 30th, but still not effective yet, must go through Congress
Uncertainty of trade tensions with China.
Xi Jinping and Trump agreed to a 90-day trade truce at a dinner after the G-20 summit in Argentina on Dec. 1st.
Over the next 90 days, American and Chinese officials will continue to negotiate lingering disagreements on technology transfer, intellectual property and agriculture.
Increasing bond yields
Indicates surge in volatility of broader stock market
In the past year, 10-yr note and 30-yr note have gone up surprisingly quick
Raises analyst worries of increasingly higher interest rates which could slow down economy
Slowdown in the housing market already evident
Rising interest rates
The velocity of rising rates
Worries of next years’ 4 rate hikes driving current uncertainty and volatility
Dismal earnings season
Retail’s poor performance
Lowered forecast for holiday season
Missed earnings for Q3
18.79 as of 11/30/18
Ranged between 16.36 – 22.48 during the month of Nov.